How to Analyze Toncoin: From Data to Decisions

Cryptocurrency thrives in a stream of information. Every day, hundreds of thousands of transactions, price fluctuations, liquidity injections, and the launch of new projects all influence the price and position of a coin within its ecosystem. But seeing this data isn’t the same as understanding it. Numbers alone aren’t enough; it’s crucial to interpret them, find connections, and use analytics to make informed decisions.

You look at the TON chart and see a 10% increase. Should you buy or wait? Most traders at this moment blindly jump into the trade, convinced the train is leaving the station. But someone else opens the blockchain and sees: several large wallets have just transferred tens of millions of TON to exchanges. This isn’t growth; it’s preparation for a sell-off. A couple of hours later, the price drops, the crowd panics and dumps the asset, while those who knew where to look for information have already exited the trade.

Understanding the market isn’t just about candlestick charts and indicators. Real players work with primary data: they monitor network activity, track large transactions, and analyze supply and demand in real time. They don’t guess; they read the blockchain like an open book.

A comprehensive analysis of Toncoin requires considering multiple factors—from macroeconomics to market psychology. In this article, we’ll focus on the key tools that help you understand what’s happening inside the TON ecosystem, who’s moving the market, and how to use this data to make decisions.

Level One: How TON Performs Internally

When we talk about cryptocurrency, the first thing to understand is what’s happening inside the network. For traditional financial markets, data sources include company reports, macroeconomic indicators, and central bank actions. In cryptocurrency, all the information is embedded in the blockchain. And if you know how to read it, you can spot trends before the market does.

One of the main tools for understanding the TON blockchain is Dune Analytics. This platform allows you to extract raw data from the blockchain, process it, and turn it into clear graphs. Thousands of transactions occur daily on TON, but what matters isn’t just the numbers—it’s the context: Is the number of active wallets growing? Are large transfers increasing? Which smart contracts are seeing the most activity?

Suppose we want to understand how popular the TON network is right now. We open Dune Analytics, search for TON, and load a dashboard showing network activity.

What’s next? We look at the key metrics:

Number of new wallets. If this has increased by 17% over the last 30 days, it’s a signal that the ecosystem is attracting new users.

Average transfer size. If it’s dropped from 500 TON to 120 TON, it means retail users are entering the network, conducting small transactions. This kind of growth is less stable.

Transaction volume. If the number of transactions has increased by 24%, but the average amount is falling, the activity might not be investment-related but rather tied to network usage (e.g., transactions within dApps or services).

How to interpret this?

Growth in wallets with a low average transfer size → New users are joining TON, but not big players. This indicates gradual development but not necessarily price growth.

Growth in wallets + increase in average transfer size → This is a strong signal, as it suggests heightened interest from major investors.

Increase in transactions without growth in new wallets → Likely internal ecosystem activity (e.g., transfers within services).

Suppose we see on Dune Analytics that the number of new users is growing, but the average transfer size is decreasing. What does this mean? Most likely, more retail users are joining TON, but big capital hasn’t entered yet. In this case, don’t expect a sharp price increase, but you can assume the project is gradually expanding its audience.

If, however, wallet growth is accompanied by an increase in average transfer size, this is a strong argument for demand from major players. In this case, it’s worth checking how the price behaves on exchanges. That’s the logical next step.

What’s next? Check CoinMarketCap to see how this data reflects TON’s market price.

Moving to the Market: What Do Prices Say?

We see that network activity is growing. The number of new wallets has increased, transaction volume is up, but what does this mean for the price? Increased blockchain activity alone doesn’t guarantee a price increase. Millions of new users could be transferring tiny amounts to each other, with no real impact on the market.

Price is determined by supply and demand on exchanges. Even if the TON network becomes more popular, if investors aren’t buying the coin, its value will remain stagnant. To understand how blockchain activity relates to market dynamics, we open CoinMarketCap.

Suppose transaction volume has increased by 24% over the past month, but the price of TON has only changed by +3%. This could mean the activity isn’t tied to exchange purchases but rather to internal transfers. For example, users might simply be moving coins between wallets or using TON in applications.

But what if transaction growth is accompanied by increased trading volume on exchanges? For instance, if daily trading volume has risen from 10 million TON to 18 million TON, and the price has increased by 15%, this could indicate active buying. In this case, it’s worth checking who’s moving the market—retail investors or large holders?

To find out, let’s look at TON Explorer and see how large transactions are distributed.

Who’s Moving the Market? Analyzing Transactions in Tonscan

Price isn’t just shaped by market demand but also by the actions of major players. Institutional funds, market makers, and whales can subtly shift the balance of supply and demand, creating the illusion of growth or decline before the real moves happen. To understand who’s driving the market, we’ll look at Tonscan—a blockchain explorer that shows all TON network transactions in real time.

Suppose the price of TON suddenly drops by 7% in a day. Is this a correction or the start of a larger decline? To answer, we open Tonscan and analyze recent large transactions.

If several large wallets sent 5 million TON to exchanges, and trading volume has increased, this could indicate that someone is actively selling. A further decline is likely.

If, on the other hand, large amounts of TON are being withdrawn from exchanges to cold wallets, this could mean investors are accumulating the asset, preparing for long-term growth.

If Tonscan shows that tons of coins are being split into many small transactions, this could be preparation for marketing activity or token distribution, which might generate increased interest in the ecosystem.

Regular exchange charts only show the effect. Tonscan lets you see the cause of price movements. If you notice abnormal fund movements in the network, you can predict the market before most others do.

Macro Factors: What Else Affects TON?

Beyond internal network data, it’s important to consider external factors that can influence TON’s price. The cryptocurrency market is closely tied to the global economy, and Toncoin is no exception. Here are some key aspects to monitor:

Regulatory News

Government and regulatory decisions can either stimulate or suppress cryptocurrency growth. For example, stricter regulations in the US or EU could reduce interest in TON, while legalization in new countries could drive growth.

Bitcoin Dynamics and Overall Market Conditions

Toncoin doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Bitcoin remains the primary indicator of market sentiment. If BTC drops sharply, altcoins, including TON, usually follow.

Suppose Bitcoin drops 15% in a week, but TON remains stable. This could signal strength—the asset is less dependent on global market movements. But if TON loses more than BTC, additional factors, such as internal selling by large holders, may be at play.

Funds and Institutional Investors

In recent years, institutional capital has increasingly entered the crypto market. If major funds start investing in TON, this could be a powerful growth trigger. One way to track institutional flows is by analyzing addresses in TON Explorer and large exchange orders.

For example, if TON Explorer shows that fund-related addresses are accumulating assets, this could indicate long-term confidence in the project. Conversely, large withdrawals to exchanges might signal preparation for sales.

Global Economic Conditions

Cryptocurrencies are increasingly seen as alternative assets during times of financial instability. If the stock market falls and investors seek new tools to protect their capital, demand for crypto could rise.

However, it’s important to note that during financial crises, major players often sell off risky assets, including crypto. For instance, in March 2020, Bitcoin crashed alongside traditional markets as investors flocked to the dollar. If the global economy faces a liquidity crisis, this could negatively impact TON.

But even if you understand who’s driving the market, what’s the point if your assets aren’t secure? Let’s move to the next crucial step—securing your TON wallets.

How Not to Lose Your Coins: Securing TON Wallets

All of this is meaningless if you don’t protect your assets.

You wake up in the morning, grab your phone, open your wallet—and see zero. The balance is empty, the last transactions are withdrawals to an unknown address. Panic.

Eliot stored his seed phrase in his iPhone notes. It was convenient—he could quickly copy it if he needed to restore access. But one day, his Apple ID was hacked. Within a couple of hours, his wallet was empty. No rollbacks, no support, no way to get the money back—it was gone forever. If he had written the seed phrase on paper and stored it offline, this could have been avoided.

Cryptocurrency offers freedom. But with it comes full responsibility. In a bank, if your card is stolen, there’s a chance to recover your money. In blockchain, the coins belong solely to the key holder. Loss of access = loss of assets.

How to protect yourself and avoid becoming the next Eliot?

Store your seed phrase offline. Never keep it in notes, cloud storage, or messengers. Better to write it on paper or use a dedicated offline password manager.

Be cautious with websites and apps. Phishing sites look like real wallets but instantly send your seed phrase to scammers. If a wallet asks for private data on a website—it’s 100% a scam.

Use two-factor authentication and hardware keys. This makes it harder for attackers. For example, MyTonWallet supports additional security layers.

Verify addresses before sending funds. Some viruses can replace wallet addresses in your clipboard, inserting a scammer’s address instead.

Don’t trust “support services” asking for your seed. No official wallet, whether Tonkeeper or any other app, will ever request private data.

Even experienced users make mistakes. Today you’re confident you know it all, but tomorrow one wrong click—and your assets are gone.

Blockchain protects you from third parties. But it won’t protect you from your own mistakes.

Risks and Reality

Any analysis is just information. It doesn’t guarantee that TON will rise or fall. In the world of cryptocurrency, predictions only work to a certain extent because the market remains unpredictable.

But the difference between random investments and a thoughtful strategy is huge. Someone using Dune Analytics can spot network activity growth early. Those tracking CoinMarketCap understand how strong TON is relative to the market. Analyzing Tonscan lets you see who’s really moving the price, rather than following the crowd. And finally, proper asset storage protects you from mistakes that could cost you everything.

In crypto, there are two types of people. Some look at candlestick charts, read the news, and buy based on intuition. Others analyze data, see where the money is flowing, and understand what’s really happening.

The first group eventually loses. The second becomes the ones who dictate the market.

Which one do you want to be?